Welcome to part four of our positional previews. Today we will be going over the projected top ten Mid Forwards (MID). Each position will be broken down into three tiers, Guns, Mr Reliable and Dark Horse. The projected ranks provided for these players will be based on projected fantasy points per game.
Guns
Everyone in this tier should be able to average 55+ points.
Cameron Murray – South Sydney Rabbitohs
Projected 2023 Rank 1
Last season Murray had a career year and was the best MID in the game. He averaged 55.3 points per game, this includes a game that he only played one minute in. His average would have been 57.8 if the game where he played one minute is excluded. The question is, can he continue last season’s form into this year, I believe he can. Over the last five seasons he has averaged 23 games a season, so durability isn’t a concern. However, Murray has suffered a few neck and head injuries in the last couple of seasons and this is a concern. He also has a very high ceiling for a MID and scored 70+ points in nine games last season. Murray is likely to have Origin duties once again.
Things to consider from the 2022 season.
· Averaged 120 run metres, 40 tackles and 1.7 missed tackles a game. This comes to 48 points in base per game.
· Averaged 2 tackle breaks and 1.7 offload a game. This comes to 9 points in attacking points per game. On top of this he is very creative in attack and is great at finding the hole in a defensive line.
· A very consistent scorer against all opposition.
· Points per minute of 0.86.
Murray is a class act and is a must start most weeks. I say most as there is the risk that he may have managed minutes around Origin time. I have Murray playing 68-73 minutes most weeks and should average 56-60 points per game.
Payne Haas – Brisbane Broncos
Projected 2023 Rank 2
Since 2019, Haas has been one of premier MIDs in fantasy. Last year he had his quietest season and only averaged 54.5 points per game. This was 5 points down on his 2021 average and 15 points down on his 2020 average. However, he still had the second-best points per game average in 2022 and was only behind Murray by less than a point. Haas’s preseason hasn’t gone as smoothly as he would have liked. He was granted a leave of absence from club duties and pre-season training due to an off-field issue. He missed nearly three weeks of training while on leave and who knows if the off-field issues will roll into the NRL season. On top of this he has had distractions surrounding his contract. In 80% of his games in 2022 he played 55+ minutes and in those games, he averaged 59 points a game. Haas is likely to have Origin duties once again.
Things to consider from the 2022 season.
· Averaged 163 run metres, 31 tackles and 1 missed tackles a game. This comes to 44 points in base per game.
· Averaged 3 tackle breaks and 1 offload a game. This comes to 11 points in attacking points per game.
· Averaged 4 points more per game against teams that made the finals.
· Points per minute of 0.88.
At the end of the day, Hass is still a gun and a must start. Off field issues aside, Haas should once again play 60-65 minutes per game and average 53-57 points per game. He will remain a gun in my books until I see otherwise.
Joseph Tapine – Canberra Raiders
Projected 2023 Rank 3
2022 was a tale of two halves for Tapine as he went on to have a career year and was the third best MID in the game, averaging 52 points. He also was voted the Dally M Prop of the Year and received the Meninga Medal which is awarded to the Canberra Player of the Year.
Up until round 10 he averaged 47 minutes a game for 43 points and from round 11 onwards he averaged 54 minutes a game for 59 points. The dramatic increase in fantasy scoring was quite astonishing. After looking into why there was a sudden increase in fantasy production, nothing really stands out except the slight increase in minutes. His performances in the back end of last season has promoted him into gun territory for me.
His durability has been good over the last three seasons, averaging 21 games a season. Tapine rarely exceeds 60 minutes a game but with Elliot and Sutton moving on, he may receive a bump in minutes.
The big question is, can he back up his 2022! I believe he can as it seems that he’s gained Ricky’s trust. The Raiders look a more dangerous team when Tapine is on the field, he leads by example in defence and attack. Tapine is one of those players that can change the momentum of a game, he has a high ceiling and had three scores of 80+ last season.
Things to consider from the 2022 season.
· Averaged 165 run metres, 29 tackles and 1.5 missed tackles a game. This comes to 40 points in base per game.
· Averaged 3 tackle breaks and 1.9 offloads a game. This comes to 12 points in attacking points per game.
· Averaged 3 points more per game against teams that didn’t make the finals.
· Points per minute of 1.02. The best by any MID.
The Raiders have one of the softest schedules this season but that shouldn’t really make too much of a difference to Tapine’s fantasy production.
Tapine will be a must start most weeks. With there being no international games this season, he may be a very valuable card to hold over Origin time.
Mr Reliable
All the players mentioned in this tier are fantasy relevant players that can do a decent job for your team. If your team has Murray, Haas and Tapine then these players will be excellent cover when required. Some weeks they may even have a more favourable match and become your preferred starter. Everyone in this tier should be able to average 50+ points.
Isaah Yeo – Penrith Panthers
Projected 2023 Rank 4
Yeo came off another impressive season in 2022 and averaged 56 points per game. He is a consistent and reliable fantasy scorer and would be a great card to have. Yeo is just short of 200 first grade games and he has great durability, averaging 23 games a season since 2015. He should be in line for a similar work load this season but may get some rest around Origin time. Yeo is one of the best MIDs when it comes to base stats but he doesn’t have the same attacking upside like Murray or Tapine.
Things to consider from the 2022 season.
· Averaged 142 run metres, 39 tackles and 1.2 missed tackles a game. This comes to 50 points in base per game.
· Averaged 1.5 tackle breaks and 0.6 offloads a game. This comes to 5 points in attacking points per game.
· Averaged 9 points more per game against teams that didn’t make the finals.
· Points per minute of 0.74.
The start to the season for Yeo is favourable as he comes up against the Broncos and Rabbitohs who were the two teams that allowed the most fantasy points to the MIDs in 2022. After the Panthers round three bye, his schedule isn’t too favourable for the rest of the season as he only has five games against teams that allowed an average of 40+ points to MIDs in 2022.
At the end of the day, Yeo is a very solid option as a starting MID. You basically know what you will get from him on a per game basis. He is in a very good team and should receive an uptick in attacking fantasy production against weaker teams. Yeo does have a decent enough ceiling and had three scores of 70+ in 2022. I have him averaging 53-56 points.
Reuben Cotter - North Queensland Cowboys
Projected 2023 Rank 5
Cotter had a breakout year in 2022 and averaged 55 points per game. He played 18 games; this was eight more than any other season. Cotter has only managed 39 first grade appearances since his debut in 2019 and his durability is a concern. He is an elite defender that can play big minutes and is a premium MID option for the 2023 season. He represented the Maroon’s in Origin last year and will be surely in the mix again this year.
Things to consider from the 2022 season.
· Averaged 124 run metres, 39 tackles and 1 missed tackle a game. This comes to 48 points in base per game.
· Averaged 2 tackle breaks a game. This comes to 6 points in attacking points per game.
· Averaged 9 points more per game against teams that made the finals.
· Points per minute of 0.92.
Cotter performs much better against good teams, this is a slight concern. The Cowboys only have one game against a team that made the 2022 finals in the first eight rounds. With the temperatures still up there in the first six or so weeks of the season, we may see some early rest for Cotter. Todd Payten is very good at managing his players workloads and if the Cowboys have some big leads, we may see more minutes for players off the interchange so the starters can have more rest.
If you have Cotter, he will likely be a starter for you most weeks. Let’s hope he can stay injury free for 2023. I have him averaging 52-55 points.
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui – Gold Coast Titans
Projected 2023 Rank 6
Tino is the Titans Captain and is their number one work horse. He may not get the minutes like some of the other MIDs do, but he does have a high points per minute. On top of a decent base, he offers some good attacking upside and is a handful for any defence. 2022 was a career year for him in fantasy averaging 46 points a game. At the age of 22 he enters his fifth season of first grade and has already made 71 appearances. Tino still has some growth in the position, I would be looking to acquire his card if you don’t already have it. His durability is great as he has played 66 games over the last three seasons. Tino is likely to play Origin again this year and last season he had his minutes managed over Origin.
Things to consider from the 2022 season.
· Averaged 160 run metres and 30 tackles. This comes to 46 points in base per game.
· Averaged 2.8 tackle breaks and 1 offload a game. This comes to 10 points in attacking points per game.
· Averaged 2.4 missed tackles, 0.8 errors and 0.8 penalties. This comes to -14 points in demerits.
· Points per minute of 0.79.
I’m really excited about Tino’s fantasy prospects this season and feel that he could be ranked slightly higher given the upside he offers. In round 20 last year he moved into prop from lock and his fantasy production kicked up a gear or two. Across these games he averaged 66 minutes a game, producing an average of 57 points. If he can manage to decrease his demerits to -8 points a game, Tino could be in for a breakout season. I have him averaging 51-54 points.
Dark Horse
All the players mentioned in this tier are fantasy relevant players that can do a decent job for your team. If your team isn’t stacked with ‘Gun’ or ‘Mr Reliable’ players, then these players should be able to average 45+ points and do a job for you.
Patrick Carrigan - Brisbane Broncos
Projected 2023 Rank 7
After suffering an ACL injury in 2021, Carrigan was a key member for the Broncos in 2022. He was hampered by an injury to his MCL early last season before stringing together some consistent performances though the mid part of the season. Carrigan enters his fifth season in top grade with only 60 appearances to his name due to injury and suspension. He is the Broncos key link man and is an inspirational leader on the field. Carrigan can be a big minute player and with the injury to Kobe Hetherington, he may see an uptick in minutes. He is one of the top defensive MIDs in the game and should provide good base stats every week. Carrigan is likely to be in the mix again for Origin but with the Broncos not having their first bye until round 16, he may be a strong starting option for you leading into Origin.
Things to consider from the 2022 season.
· Averaged 150 run metres, 32 tackles and 2 missed tackles a game. This comes to 41 points in base per game.
· Averaged 1.5 tackle breaks and 1.5 offloads a game. This comes to 6 points in attacking points per game.
· Averaged 10 points more per game against teams that made the finals.
· Points per minute of 0.72.
The Broncos have one of the toughest schedules for 2023 and this is great for Carrigan being a very good defensive MID.
Last season Carrigan only averaged 43 points which was a disappointment. This season I have him averaging 48-50 points as he has the skill set and base stats to do so.
Ryan Matterson - Parramatta Eels
Projected 2023 Rank 8
Matterson had a good 2022 averaging 51 points a game. Unfortunately for fantasy, he must serve a three-game suspension and is due to return against the Panthers in round four. There is a bit of uncertainty around his position this year with the departures of Papali’i and Kaufusi. The Eels have also brought Hopgood across from Penrith. Rumours are, Hopgood will likely start at lock. With the lack of depth on the edge compared to last season, Matterson may find himself playing on an edge more this year. Last season he started off the interchange in 15 games but this didn’t make a difference to the minutes he played. Matterson is an experienced campaigner and has 143 appearances in the NRL. His durability has been good over his career and averages 20 games a season since 2016. However, he has had few HIAs in the last couple of years and this always makes me nervous. He has played Origin before and might be in the mix again this year, just something to monitor.
Things to consider from the 2022 season.
· Averaged 153 run metres, 30 tackles and 1.5 missed tackles a game. This comes to 42 points in base per game.
· Averaged 2.2 tackle breaks and 2.1 offloads a game. This comes to 10 points in attacking points per game.
· Averaged 10 points more per game against teams that made the finals.
· Points per minute of 0.89.
Matterson seems to excel against strong opposition and averaged 56 points a game against teams that made the finals last season. Whether he played against a team that made the finals or one that didn’t, his minutes didn’t change.
Matterson is a decent card to have but shouldn’t be in your squad until round four. Maybe even round five, it really depends what his job role will be for this season. If his job roll stays the same as last year, I would be moving him up a tier. He has great PPM, offers a good offload, and can break a few tackles. Due to the uncertainty of his roll at this stage, I have averaging 47-50 points.
Tohu Harris – New Zealand Warriors
Projected 2023 Rank 9
Harris’s 2022 season was a bit below what we were hoping for in fantasy terms compared to the 2020 and 2021 seasons. He didn’t play his first game in 2022 until round 10 (Magic Round) but that was due to his return from a ruptured ACL in 2021. Harris only managed an average of 45 points last season after averaging 55+ points the previous two seasons. He is three games shy of 200 NRL games as he enters his eleventh season of first grade. Durability has been a concern since 2017 and averages 15 games a season over this period. I’m expecting Harris to bounce back a bit this season, maybe not to the heights of 2020 and 2021 but to a 47+ point scorer. He is the Warriors captain and was on the field for an average of 70 minutes per game over his 15 appearances in 2022.
Things to consider from the 2022 season.
· Averaged 131 run metres, 36 tackles and 2.2 missed tackles a game. This comes to 43 points in base per game.
· Averaged 1 tackle break a game. This comes to 2 points in attacking points per game.
· Averaged 5 points more per game against teams that didn’t make the finals.
· Points per minute of 0.66.
The first eight rounds for Harris will be tough going with six games against the four of the top five teams that allowed the least points to MIDs last season. From round 9 through to round 22 the Warriors have a very favourable run of games and only have one game against one of these top five teams in this period.
Harris will be a worthy starting option each week, especially with a bye in every round this season. Yes, if you have any three of the players ranked above him, you probably won’t be starting him too often. However, he may be a highly valued card to have around Origin time as this is when the Warriors generally get a bit of a roll one. Harris won’t have any rep footy this year and he would be a great replacement for any of the Origin players if they are rested.
David Klemmer – Wests Tigers
Projected 2023 Rank 10
Klemmer had a great year in fantasy last season and had the fourth best average for MIDs, averaging 51 points a game. This year I’ve dropped him down a bit in the rankings as Wests Tigers look to have a very good forward pack on paper and he may not get as many minutes as he did last season. Since his debut season in 2013, Klemmer has played 20+ games every year except for last year when he only played 18. He is set to play his 200th game of NRL against the Sea Eagles in round seven and his durability isn’t too much of a concern even though he is now 29 years old. He did however have problems with his knee last year and this was the reason why he spent some time on the side-line. It’s just something to monitor.
Klemmer offers great base stats in the form of running metres and tackles, he also offers a good offload. As most of you know, he can easily fire up and give away a silly penalty or spend time in the sin bin. He has got a lot better in this department as he’s matured but he can still snap at any time.
Things to consider from the 2022 season.
· Averaged 155 run metres, 33 tackles and 1 missed tackle a game. This comes to 45 points in base per game.
· Averaged 1.2 tackle breaks and 2 offloads a game. This comes to 5 points in attacking points per game.
· Averaged 11 points more per game against teams that didn’t make the finals.
· Points per minute of 0.83.
Matchups don’t mean too much to MIDs really but for Kleemer it did in 2022. He averaged 57 points a game against teams that didn’t make the finals, 6 points more than his season average.
Klemmer is a solid MID option every week and offers a solid base. If you have any three of the above players, it may pay to start them in the first round due to the uncertainty of Klemmer's minutes at his new club as there are many mouths to feed. If he has similar minutes as he did last year, he will be climbing a couple spots in my ranks. I have him averaging 46-48 points based on 55 minutes a game.
It’s worth keeping an eye on the below players as they all were very close to making the Dark Horse tier. Any of them may slip into my top ten from week to week.
Cameron McInnes – Cronulla Sharks
Joe Ofahengaue – Wests Tigers
James Fisher-Harris – Penrith Panthers
Nat Butcher - Sydney Roosters
Addin Fonua-Blake - New Zealand Warriors